Linear credit risk models

Credit Risk Scoring Models

Credit scoring models play a fundamental role in the risk management practice at most banks. They are used to quantify credit risk at counterparty or transaction level in the different phases of the credit cycle (e.g. application, behavioural, collection models). The credit score empowers users to make quick decisions or even to automate decisions and this is extremely desirable when banks are ...

Credit risk models : why they failed in the credit crisis

Credit Risk, Credit Derivatives and Firm Value Based Models

∗Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis, New School, New York, and Center for Empirical Macroeconomics, Bielefeld

Affine credit risk models under incomplete information

We consider the problem of computing some basic quantities such as defaultable bond prices and survival probabilities in a credit risk model according to the intensity based approach. We let the default intensities depend on an external factor process that we assume is not observable. We use stochastic filtering to successively update its distribution on the basis of the observed default histor...

Reinforced urn processes for credit risk models

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model to estimate rating migration matrices and default probabilities using the reinforced urn processes (RUP) introduced in Muliere et al. (2000). The estimated default probability becomes our prior information in a parametric model for the prediction of the number of bankruptcies, with the only assumption of exchangeability within rating classes. The Polya ...